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Photo: DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP
Events are whirling in Russia, where Wagner’s forces are already on their way to Moscow. Many people don’t do a critical analysis when they don’t even know exactly what’s going on. However, there is one that can already be seen.
Putin created his own dream.
He writes in his quick reaction Gideon Rachman is a senior foreign policy critic at the Financial Times. According to Rachman, the Wagner uprising confirms how disastrous the war against Ukraine is for Putin. Now,his prestige, power, and even his life are at stake, and even if he wins the war against Wagner, the situation will still be seriously humiliating for him.
According to Rachman, the historical irony of the situation is that Putin’s own actions have brought about what he fears most: an uprising that threatens both the Russian state and his own power. Putin has been afraid of various color revolutions for twenty years – precisely since the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and his paranoia has grown stronger every year. Since then, he fears that Ukraine will slip out of Russia’s hands, and that a democratic turn in Kiev will do the same in Moscow.
By starting the war, he responded to both fears: the plan was to install a pro-Russian, authoritarian government in Kiev, writes the editor of the Financial Times.
Putin was convinced that any kind of “color revolution” could only come from Washington. He could not imagine Ukraine wanting to take its fate into its own hands, and therefore underestimated the resistance it would face to a Russian invasion. Meanwhile, he overestimated Russia’s military power, which created an opportunity for Wagner to play a role in the war. Yevgeny Prigozhin was able to build his own power base and propaganda, which he eventually turned against the Russian state, Rachman writes.
According to the editor of the Financial Times, on the one hand, the Wagner uprising could mean hope for external and internal opponents of Putin’s regime. For the Ukrainian military, it would be a historic opportunity for a breakthrough if Russian forces beat each other. Russian political prisoners may also feel that opportunities may open up for them in the near future.
Meanwhile, Prigogine was an imperialist and nationalist, and Wagner was famous for his brutality. Like Putin once, Prigogine has unleashed forces that are now hard to contain, writes Gideon Rachman.