The biggest irony is that the referendum in the Balkans was peaceful

– This is how Dodik presumably tested the reactions to a later referendum – Szeizovics listed the possible motivations. According to analysts, the current referendum was the main test of the referendum expected in 2018, the stake of which may be the independence of the Republika Srpska.

Dodik in his circle of supporters. He plans for the long term
Dodik in his circle of supporters. He plans for the long term
Dado Ruvic / Reuters

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic opposed the September 25 referendum from the beginning, and called the fact that it took place in peace the greatest achievement. His statement indicates that Belgrade will not support the secessionist aspirations of the Bosnian Serbs. According to the decision of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Dodik crossed a line with the referendum, which was organized despite the position of the Serbian authorities and the international community, which will certainly have consequences.

The international community has put sanctions on the horizon: according to Valentin Inzko, the chief representative of the international community in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the organizers of the referendum have committed a crime, so they must expect punitive measures. The United States and the European Union floated the possibility of Dodik being blacklisted.

The Sarajevo State Prosecutor’s Office summoned Dodik for violating the decision of the Constitutional Court, but he did not travel to Sarajevo, saying that he wanted to comply with the summons in the territory of the Republic of Serbia. – Dodik can also be produced by the police, but it is unlikely that it will happen, because it is feared that it would lead to disorder and even armed conflict. Such a step could only take place after the green signal from the international community, says Szeizovics.

Despite what happened, according to the professor, the atmosphere in Bosnia-Herzegovina is completely normal, people live as if nothing had happened, there will be no major conflicts, and verbal battles and political tensions between nations are part of everyday life.

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