Inflation may be down, but it won’t be – a bleak forecast has arrived

Next year, and even in 2025, Hungary will have one of the highest inflation rates in the EU. – Evaluated in Nepsava article.

In June, Hungarian inflation was 20.1 percent, as measured by the CSO, which is still higher than the EU average – as revealed by Eurostat data. While the value measured by the KSH is below 20 percent, the harmonized consumer price index used by Eurostat was already 19.9 percent in Hungary in June, but even this is higher than the EU average, which was already 7.1 in May. .

The rate of price increase in the region can be seen to be strongly decelerating, so although the annual price index exceeded 10 percent in May even in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, statisticians often measure double-digit prices. In July only the index on the Hungarian economy – Readable on paper.

Hungarian inflation is expected to fall below 10 percent in November, according to domestic analysts.

According to analysts at OTP Bank, inflation will be 18 percent this year and five percent next year, and there is no reason to rewrite their previous forecasts based on June data. According to the bank’s analysts, inflation is supported by declining consumption among the population, which is clearly indicated by the weakness of retail sales.

At the same time, the weakness of inflation has been helped by the strengthening of the forint in recent months. Although the latter has taken an unexpected turn in recent days, the exchange rate is still stronger than a year ago, so it is capable of further supporting the fall in inflation, but also indicates the growth of agricultural crop prices in the world market. In this direction. OTP analysts note that their inflation forecast may have been lowered based on incoming data, but

The introduction of the new Environmental Protection Product Charges system, the EPR charge, significantly increases packaging charges from July, especially for food, and the introduction of food price caps in August, they did not lower the inflation forecast either.The OTP expects the annual monetary decline rate to be 5 percent in 2024, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank – in a marginally wider range – 3.5-5.5, and the Kopint-Tárki 5.8-6 percent. With this expected devaluation of 5.8-6 percent, we will definitely be among the countries with the highest inflation in the EU, he said. Eva Balloux CEO of Kopint-Tárki.

The Polish, Slovak and Hungarian economies lead the inflation rankings, and Hungary is the furthest among them for economic policy reasons. Even before 2019 – before the Covid crisis – we were one of the countries with the highest inflation and traditionally one of the economies showing the strongest rate of currency depreciation.

Additionally, the government’s economic policy is not conducive to reducing inflation because the Minister of Economic Development, Great Martin It works to enable economic growth at all costs.

So, in 2024, we will definitely be among the countries with the highest inflation in the EU, but most likely in 2025 as well.

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